Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Finally they admitted

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/108565/goldman-email-message-lays-bare-trading-conflicts?sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

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Goldman E-Mail Message Lays Bare Trading Conflicts

by Andrew Ross Sorkin
Wednesday, January 13, 2010

provided by
The New York Times

For years, Wall Street whispered that Goldman Sachs profited handsomely by trading ahead of -- or even against -- its own clients.

On Tuesday, a Goldman executive made an unusual admission that, in some cases, the rumors were true.

In an e-mail message to select clients, Thomas C. Mazarakis, the head of Goldman's fundamental strategies group, acknowledged that his unit often provided investment ideas that the firm had already traded on. Sometimes Goldman has even taken the opposite approach, betting against particular instruments that the group has recommended.

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"We may trade, and may have existing positions, based on trading ideas before we have discussed those trading ideas with you," he wrote.

The statement comes as the firm faces growing criticism over its role in the financial crisis, and is a rare acknowledgment of Goldman's conflicts with certain of its clients.

"The way that the business is evolving is that it is laden with conflicts of interest," Anant K. Sundaram, a professor of finance at Dartmouth's Tuck School of Business, said.

Last month, the Securities and Exchange Commission and Congress began investigating how Goldman and other firms had created bundles of mortgages known as collateralized debt obligations, or C.D.O.'s, that were sold to investors at the same time that the banks had privately bet against the instruments. Some of these C.D.O.'s later fell in value, creating losses for those clients who bought them -- and profits for Goldman.

Goldman also prevailed upon ratings agencies to assign the C.D.O.'s high investment grades, even as it planned to short, or bet against, the securities.

The e-mail message is a blunt acknowledgment of what often appeared in the fine print of Goldman's marketing materials. Lucas van Praag, a Goldman spokesman, said in a statement: "We have been providing this disclosure, which we think is best practice, for a number of years and there is nothing new in the disclosure you were sent."

But Mr. Mazarakis's letter also highlights the enormous clout wielded by Goldman's army of traders, many of whom make enormous bets using the firm's own capital and who provide the bulk of the firm's immense profits. Goldman insists that its trading business is done on behalf of its clients.

Since the firm went public in 1999, traders have come to dominate Goldman's mix of businesses, overshadowing the firm's traditional investment banking practice. Both its chief executive, Lloyd C. Blankfein, and its president, Gary D. Cohn, rose from the traders' ranks.

Unlike Goldman's equity research department, which issues buy and sell recommendations about specific stocks, the fundamental strategies group's primary job is to supply investment ideas to the firm's own traders. (Still, Goldman attracted scrutiny last year for "huddles" that its research analysts held with the firm's traders, information that it only later shared with clients, if at all. That has prompted inquiries by regulators like the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority into how banks distribute their research.)

But the fundamental strategies group also disseminates some of those strategies to select Goldman clients, typically big institutional investors and hedge funds. Because of its role, the unit does not have to conform to the traditional rules governing equity research departments.

Under federal rules, research analysts cannot mislead clients by promoting stocks that the analysts privately do not believe in or that the firm has a vested interest in. Research analysts are also prevented from providing information to their firms' own traders before disseminating their reports more broadly.

But according to clients who receive notes from the fundamental strategies group, Goldman does not always disclose its own positions when it shares its trading ideas.

Mr. Mazarakis's e-mail statement was clearly meant to reinforce Goldman's conflict-of-interest policy and head off any legal liability. "As part of our commitment to managing conflicts of interest appropriately, this message is to explain how the Fundamental Strategies Group interacts with other parts of our organization and how that impacts on the Trading Ideas," Mr. Mazarakis wrote. Mr. van Praag said the language in the message had been vetted by the Financial Services Authority in Britain.

But Mr. Mazarakis makes clear that when it comes to his unit's advice, the firm comes first. "We may continue to act on trading ideas, and may trade out of any position, based on trading ideas, at any time after we have discussed them with you," he wrote.

Friday, November 20, 2009

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Correlation Trading

Article taken from:
http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/10/the-giant-flaw-in-correlation-trading/

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The Giant Flaw In Correlation Trading

October 26, 2009 · By Brad · Filed Under Guest Bloggers

Last week Jason Fielder gave us some general insight on correlation trading, but today he pulls out ALL the stops and dives deep into a proven method for successful correlation trading! Jason said the only way he would teach this much is if I mentioned his free webinar that focuses on correlation trading! I’d recommend you attend (as I’ll be there) and let Jason teach you even more then you ever knew about correlation trading. But sign-up AFTER you read the article below so you know you won’t be wasting your time October 28th.

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I have some unfortunate news for you Trader’s Blog readers, correlation trading does have one GIANT FLAW.

While correlations will tell you that a move is about to occur, correlation alone doesn’t tell you which pair is moving or the direction it will be moving in.

In other words, you know you need to put on a trade, but you don’t know which pair to trade or whether you need to buy or sell short. This massive limitation in correlation trading has stifled traders for years, which is why so few traders use correlations despite its obvious benefits.

Of the handful of traders who did trade with correlations, most just used it as a filter to increase the accuracy of an already-profitable system.

Well I for one wasn’t willing to stop there…

You see, as a full-time trader, researcher and system developer, I know that identifying PREDICTABLE VOLATILITY is half the battle. Determining entry and exit points is simply a matter of testing and a whole lot of trial and error.

It took the better part of 12 months, but eventually my team and I researched, developed and tested 82 different strategies for capitalizing on correlation trades. When the dust settled we were left with only 8 that made cut…and because you’re a Trader’s Blog reader, I am now going to share one of my favorites with you.

Follow The Leader

The strategy is called “Follow the Leader”, and while it’s one of the simplest of the 8 strategies my team and I developed, it’s no less important. Honestly I’m giving you this method because I really want you to attend my Correlation Webinar that is on Wednesday!

The “Follow the Leader” Correlation Trade like all correlation trades, “Follow the Leader” waits until two correlated pairs go “out of whack”, and then quickly capitalizes on the opportunity to scalp some quick pips out of the market.

Here’s how it works…

For this system I like to trade the EUR/USD along with the GBP/USD. These pairs are positively correlated, so as expected they are more or less moving parallel to one another (as seen on chart below). But when we’re trading with correlation, we’re not only looking at direction…we’re also looking at the RANGE.

“Range”: The difference between the high and the low prices during a specified period of time.

We know, for example, that the GBP/USD normally has a much larger range than the EUR/USD (NOTE: I don’t have the time right now to go into why the range of the GBP/USD is larger, but if you look at the two charts side-by-side you’ll be able to see with the naked eye what I’m talking about.). In other words, while these correlated pairs will generally move in the same direction, the GBP/USD should have lower valleys and higher peaks than the EUR/USD. So, when we see that the range of the GBP/USD is lagging behind the range of the EUR/USD for one bar (see chart), we have a potential trade setup. Once the “range lag” is 20 pips or greater, we take the trade with the expectation that the GBP/USD will make up the “gap”, and overtake the range of the EUR/USD within a few bars.

Remember, we know this is an extremely high probability trade, because “Fundamental Law” dictates that the pairs MUST remain in correlation, so therefore we know that they will eventually “snap back”. Like I said, it’s a simple strategy, but because it’s backed by market fundamentals it’s one of the most accurate (and profitable) intra-day strategies I’ve ever traded.

OK, let’s check out the chart as mentioned above:




























Right now the range of the GBP/USD is lagging the EUR/USD by 8 pips. That’s enough of a lag to take notice, but it’s not enough to take the trade yet.

Remember, I like to see at least a 20 pip lag before I take the trade, so I’ll watch it for another bar and see what happens…



























When the second bar closes, the range is now lagging by 15 pips. It’s still not enough for me to take the trade yet, but the fact that the range lag still hasn’t corrected itself (and is actually growing wider) has me very excited.

I’ll wait and watch it for one more bar and see if the “range lag” or “crack” widens enough for me to take the trade…



























The third bar has closed, and the “range lag” has now widened to 24 pips. That’s greater than the 20 pip minimum I need, so I’m going to take this trade and go long on the GBP/USD.

My expectation is that the GBP/USD will at a bare minimum make up the 24 pip “range lag” or “crack”…and possibly even go beyond that since historically the range of the GBP/USD is supposed to be LARGER than the EUR/USD

And again, when we’re trading with correlation and something goes “wrong” (as is the case with this “range lag”), that usually means there’s a profit opportunity just around the corner. :)

Now that we’re in this trade, let’s watch it and see what happens next…



























As you can see, the very next bar the GBP/USD made up the “range lag” and returned to“normal” just as we expected it to. We then exit the trade at the end of the bar and
pocket the 24 pips.

So there you have it…the “Follow the Leader” strategy!

So to recap, all you need to do is:
1) Watch these 2 pairs simultaneously.
2) Track the movement of both pairs at the close of each bar.
3) Once you see one of the pairs begin to pull away, pay attention because you are now looking at a potential trade setup.
4) Calculate the “range lag” or “crack” and when it exceeds 20 pips, you’re ready to pull the trigger, and you know what your target will be, as it will be always be about equal to the “range-lag”!

I’m confident that this one strategy alone will make you a more confident, accurate and profitable trader, as these trades are ultra high probability trades to take, and I LOVE when they set up…

Now that I’ve given you a PROVEN method of Correlation Trading I ask that you please take time on October 28th to come to my webinar where I’ll REALLY teach you about Correlation Trading!

Jason Fielder
The Correlation Trading Webinar FREE sign-up

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Article taken in whole, credit given to the authors and original poster with all links provided.
I do NOT claim any credit for this excellent article.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Ace of Clubs

The quest has begun...

Ultimate Wisdom


In ancient China times, there was this one emperor whom decided to embark upon a journey to discover the ultimate wisdom in the world. He summoned all his advisers and told them their mission - to find the ultimate wisdom in the world.
His advisers immediately scrambled to find the ultimate wisdom as ordered.
A year later, the advisers compiled the "wisdoms" which they find very true during their era of time. The emperor was submitted with their findings. The emperor, being a light headed fellow with no patience of reading what was the sweat and hardwork of his advisers summoned his advisers again.
"Its too thick to read for my royal eyes. Summarize them" He ordered.
As it was the decree of His Royal Highness, his advisers once again scrambled to carried it out.
One month later, they summarized into a single page and was pretty satisfied with their work.
Yet, again, the Emperor was not satisfied. That Royal (feather-brained) Emperor decreed, "Summarize them yet again."
His advisers were aghast with the decree. How can that be possible!? How on earth!?
What an idiot, we have as an emperor!?
"But he IS the Emperor!!!"
And during the era, capital punishment of the whole clan was common.
Fearing such dreaded punishment, the advisers have no choice.
Yet, they have no idea or any clue how to carry out their latest decree.
They decided to have lunch in a nearby restaurant.
Then it struck them.
"There is NO free lunch in this world"
Hence it was presented to the Emperor and became the undisputed ULTIMATE wisdom in this world.


And when it comes to Trading? What is the ultimate wisdom?
If one were to be asked, what is the single most important thing in trading, how would he answer?
After a long thought, with inspiration from Dark Mocha and Issac Newton, I think it has something to do with apples and lemons.


Yes, apples and lemons. When the market offers apples, take it. When it offers lemons, take it. No sense wanting apples when it is offering lemons and vice versa. It is really, something beyond our control. Unlike in the fields of business or management, there isn't much to do save for recognising what it is offering. Apples and lemons, anyone?

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Saturday, July 18, 2009