My reply - Market Mechanism

Thank you for the reply. Let me clarify some of the comments

Your comments:1) First, u said TA is common sense ,k.. but then horr..y seng still made so many mistake ? such as buying gpacket @ 4.50, GS @ 85 , Oskv1 @ 2.50 n Citi @ 8.50? r u saying seng knows nut about TA ? or he doesnt hv any sense ?

My reply:I have no idea why Seng did what he did. It is not up to me to comment. Lets just say this - got one teacher. The teacher teach one class 40 ppl. All teach using same method. Will everyone understand the same? Can you say that the teacher's method work or does not work based on one or two people?And in that class is 40 ppl. The teacher in his lifetime will teach much more than 40 ppl. Sometimes, there will be more ppl who can understand, sometimes less ppl.


2) Second , u said "Many people claim to use TA, but they do not understand TA ", is this statement refer to seng ?

My reply:It is a general statement. It does not refer to anyone specific.


3) Third: U said "Stock rises, then falls then rises then falls. The more detailed process goes as simple as this - "..perhaps u should tell me why shit stock like megan, union paper ,promet all falled until u dont see them in KLSE anymore ? where got falls then rises ? bcos they were in huge debt until they cannot repay d debt , that's y they gone with d wind ! is this not related to FA meh ?

My reply:Yes, some shit stock drop then died. Never see them again. Maybe later they will relist. Who knows? The cycle longer. Or, lets use the reincarnation analogy - some live then die, then live but as animal then die. Some will live then die but then ascend to heaven. There are some exceptions. But then the general idea is that there is a cycle where majority of us will live then die then live then die loh.And, some shit stock later restructure and change name continue in KLSE. Example - Renong?


4)fourth : yr "Stock rises to target of the operators. Now operators started to sell. Public absorbing the volume sold. Price does not move much anymore. Volume remains high. Distribution is at place."Let me tell u y distribution took place here , when stock rises to its fair value , value investors hv made enough , y should they hold ? hence they start selling ! isn't it a FA factor ?

My reply:To me it does not matter why it rises and falls. What matters is knowing when it will rise and when it will fall.


5)Fifth: u said " 1) Stock is accumulated. Price does not move much. Volume begin to pick up. Accumulation Stage2) Stock already accumulated sufficiently. Supply dried out. Demand came. Stock is pushed up. UPtrend begins "Let me show u one good example, KNM @ 1.02 ,she came down from 1.70 , it was hanging around this level with huge volume 4 quite some time , is it accumulated ? look at KNM today , how much she is ?Max..d above knm is a good example , price came down, she does not move with huge volume does'nt mean it is accumulation, how do u define it is accumulation or distribution ? TA cannot tell ? common sense also cannot tell ? bukan ?

My reply:Well, my statement earlier refers to accumulation process to uptrend. Yours are referring to distribution then downtrend. Apamacam la?For me, KNM distribution happened in Jan-Jun 2008. Later downtrend begun. Its range in 1.02 level not too long. Not sufficient to be called accumulation. Normally sideway action in accumulation takes months. Huge volume downward price action, is not accumulation. Earlier I mentioned accumulation is Price sideway action, higher volume (not huge volume)


6)sixth : Look at sapcrest warrant , down from sky, u said, stock falls then rise , well..this one is definitely cannot rise due to out of money n time frame factors , are these not A FA factor also ? y ytlpowerwb is different ? cos she is in money + long time frame , mother's future earning is very promising , r these not FA factor ?

My reply:Well, same reply, to me it does not matter why. Because "why" doesnt help me make money. But "when" can help me make money.


7)I dont agree with yr stock falls then rises, falls then rises ..not all stocks can falls then rises ! only mkt can falls then rises !
My reply:OK. Not all stocks. Thanks for the correction. Market falls then rises.


8)FYI, yr falls then rises cycle is due to FA factor,economy getting bad , earning decline , fair value drop, hence stock falls , after sometime, economy getting better , earning improved , fair value increase , stock rises ! this is d fact ! all these happened bcos of FA not TA !

My reply: Can see our concepts is different because you re finding out why. I only interested in knowing when.


9)Lastly, since u said TA is a common sense stuff , well.. y not u pick up a few counters n show us how it works ? so far what we seen from seng r all holland calls !How about that ? will u ?

My reply: After I went full fledged into TA, I went into FKLI and FCPO. Later went into US Futures - DJI (YM), SP500 (ES) but timezone difficult, health issues a lot. Finally stopped after kena tembak from doctor. Played a bit of forex too.Stock picking is something of which you re good at. Not something I am good at. Yes, can use TA to pick. But then I ll need to screen through so many stocks... and whats the point leh... in the end, its something you re good at not something I am good at.
But, maybe what you thinking is for me to prove my theory. OK. If that is so, why not you name me some counters. Lets limit to five counters. Good counters and bad counters mixed or just make it random.Then we have a timeframe target. Up to you how long. Then I ll comment. You ll comment on the same stock also. Timeframe sampai... then we see jadi tak jadi... can?


10)Max ..sincere advise , talk is easy than do , show u one good example..all of us know what is buy low sell high , buy at low then sell at high, wait for it to come down then buy again n sell at high ! so simple common sense isn't it ? ha ha..is that so simple ? reall so simple ?

My reply: Yes, simple things very hard to do. Ppl say buy low sell high but always end up buy high sell low.My additional comments:I used to be very concerned as to why a stock rise or fall. But no more. Why? Because some shit stock can also goreng until high high. Over valued liaw but still go up. Renong, Hwa Tai, Promet, Kuchai even. The pre 97 prices all is overvalued but still price go up. Of course then they came tumbling down. But to say that once price goes up and down because of FA, I disagree. Initially price havent reach FA target, maybe we can say its because its undervalued. But if price reach FA target then keep going up how? FA tak jadi? The recent one - just take Iris. How much the value in FA? Shoot to 1.40, PE that time how many thousand times. So why go up? More ppl buy loh. Less ppl sell. So why ppl buy? Well.. kena goreng loh...Of course later goreng too long, hangus loh...

Anyway... that one all cakap kosong... thanks Sam for the reply even its 3 am... much appreciated.

For practical can la... if you choose lima biji counter for both of us to comment, then set a time limit. I will comment to the best of my ability loh. Jadi tak jadi tarak tau lagi. But then thats the fun part mah. Tengok whose comment right when time limit up. But that one is if you re free la. Apamacam?

Anyway... now I go goreng bihun... goreng goreng...