My Comments for the Challenge

OK here comes my comment:
1)YTLPwr-WB
As this is warrant, it depends on the mother share. But instead of looking at FA stuff, I m merely going to compare the mother chart and the baby chart.
Grandma story:
YTLPwr was in uptrend until end 2007. Thereafter we see a huge drop - downtrend. In Apr 2008 onwards, the price move in range signalling potential accumulation process begun. However, the recent weeks runup has met some resistance and currently unable to break the resistance.

Grandma story 2:
YTLPwr-WB begun and price dropped since. At end Nov, the price ran up. Recent weeks unable to break the high. The runup is in tandem with the runup in the mother share.The resistance now also in tandem with the mother share.

Sam's Comment:
Sam's comment to buy YTLPwr at less than 0.55 looked very likely.

My recomendation:
Current moment: SELL
Potential buy price target: When YTL Power is around 1.65 and YTLPwr WB is around 0.45. If YTLPwr WB goes to 0.45 while YTL Power is higher than 1.65, this price target is invalidated.


2)KNM
Grandma story:
Runup from cents region to ringgit region begun in 2006.In 2008, distribution took place. Uptrend line broke in Jul 2008 signalling downtrend stage begun. High volume registered in Oct and price downward momentum decreased signalling potential accumulation begun.

My recommendations:HOLD first.
Potential to buy around 0.40 remains high. Price to run high high, belum lagi. Wait for two more months. For long term people, can accumulate around this 0.40 price target.


3)SIME
Grandma stories:
Runup begun late 2007. Late 2008 to beginning 2009 distribution took place. Super Gap (my own term, not TA :P) happenned in Mar 2009 signalling super downtrend. Currently while price is at prior to runup, no signs of assumulation process begun.

My recommendations:NO BUY.
Wait until accumulation begun for long term buyers. For TA buyers, as usual, wait for uptrend signals.


Hehe, sorrila with the grandma stories... but at end also got to the point summary. Can accept?

So over to your comments Sam. Sam, rubber more safe, but less shiok. If want really safe then ma no need to do, then sure safe! Hahaha. There ll always be risk of pregnancy even with rubber. Haha. They say, Everytime we choose safety, we reinforce fear.

I d like to think now I graduated from primary and secondary TA school liaw. Of course, belum dapat diploma, degree, master, phd whatever lagi lo. But maybe I am wrong who knows... Time will tell. If not, I go study SPM again. Hahahahaha :)


Dear Theng,
OK, FKLI part, I challenge you, can? Look like you think my simple strategy very lousy.
So here is my challenge:
My position will be as follows:At opening bell tomorrow - 19 Jan 2009, I ll take short position; whatever the price. Then I ll hold until end of month - contract expiry. Look at the settlement price in newspaper, then thats the price close. Then calculate profit or loss for me there. Margin 4K. Capital 10K per lot.The temporary increase one nevermind one la. Sap sap sui. After 3 days they reduce loh. In between if margin call also, got T+3. Hahaha. So far, I never kena margin call love letters yet. Thank you for your concerns.
Thereafter every 1st day of the month, short whatever the price. Until Aug contract expiry.

Still I am not sure why you sound like you hate bizfun so much. If they are nothing to you, why so "kek tong"? Relaxla. Bizfun forum taught me a lot of things. Helped me make money. So, thank you for your concerns but I dont feel that I am being misled there la.

OK, so you re old bird in FKLI and FCPO. Whats your approach then? If you re an old bird, my simple challenge above will be no problem to you right? Anytime can beat that. So accept my challenge?

Anyway, still got many fund managers there la at bizfun. I met some of them also. Namecard ada pun. Some I open account with them also. Some of them taught me how to play other markets. Shared with me their experiences also. Got a lot of nice ppl there too.

By the way, why my comment on rollover is a joke? Big funds rollover, sure I know. But whats the point for small fellas like me? Roll or not roll also, it will be realized profit/loss. The question was raised by another forummer whether rollover can become unrealised or not. So, what did I comment wrong?
You say - How are u going to roll-over until aug with your rolling skill in kindergarden stuff? A beginner also knows how to roll-over, ok? That is the basic in playing this game!I say - No need roll roll over la. Simple enough. Short current month contract. Keep until settlement. Following month new contract, short again. Keep until settlement. Simple right? I dont want to confuse ppl who dont play FKLI. Senang sikit for them to see this strategy also. If take into account of rollover, then need to track more things, susah. We keep simple simple for everybody lo. I dont think you re big fish la btw. If really big fish, then why so kek tong reading my comments? You should be very happy mah. If I get it all wrong, then that means every month income for you I got contribute one...

For those who dont play FKLI, FKLI is what ppl call zero sum game. For one to win, another must lose. Therefore, for big fish to win, all the other small fish must lose. Or other big fish lose loh. So Theng, apamacam? Accept my challenge to beat my ROI based on my simple strategy? (Maybe negative ROI I will get, who knows) hehe.

Maxforce said...
GPacket...Well Sam, maybe you see it as weakness la. But the way I look at GPacket, it ll come down again. Yes la, naik from bottom a lot liaw. If you use percentage like that, how? Cos u compare from bottom. If compare from top, the percent very small only.
So lets add GPacket to our challenge.
My recommendations to those holding Gpacket now: SELL.
What is your recommendations, Sam?

Sam accepts Challenge. Theng baits for a Challenge

Samgoss said...
^V^Ha ha..k..deal...!

Let start with ytlpwrwb , actually i am eyeing to buy back ytlpwrwb @ price below my selling point , I think d chances for me to buy back @ <>

D second stock is KNM , what is yr TA analysis max ?

D third one is SIME , how ?Bear in mind max , i want u to tell us when to buy ? or it is a sell at current level !? we dont want to hear grand mother stories, can ?

Yes , rubber (FA)is not 100% safe but it is much much safer than withdrawal (TA)! bukan ?

Ha ha ..u said u r only a TA student, what make u think u r qualified to tell sour seng , he cant beat me with his TA ? ha ha..seng , see ? a TA student said u know nut about TA , if i were u, i will find a hole to hide my bloddy head inside liaooo..ha ha2

Theng , about d FKLI part, i leave it to u , u monitor it 4 me ..k ?

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Theng said...
Bizfun people did nothing as they are simply nothing to me! Like I said maxforce at least a reasonable guy. However, maxforce was with a group of foolish who believe TA is everything and TA is so important. I have nothing against those ‘closed minded’ people. It is just that I seen how a real expert and how a big fish being bullied when he tried to educate the entire close minded people there.

maxforce, you do not belongs there and please do not waste your time being mislead by the so called FKLI/FCPO expert there. What u wants me to learn? Believe it or not, I am a real ‘lao jiao’ in FKLI and FCPO. So, what do u wants me to learn from the idiots and small player there? Who are they, by the way?

A real fund-manager was presented there while the idiots there do not know how to appreciate. So, what do u want me to learn there? I only comment in blogs / forum with qualities. Your gratitude theory is totally wrong on my side. I respect Sam, simple as that!

You owe them for learning from the FKLI expert there that makes u a better in FKLI/FCPO? Are u sure? Your latest comment on roll-over was a real great joke. Your sifu there teach you that? Hahahaha, like I said, you do not belong there. With your good attitude, you should seek for better sifu, ok?

“FKLI. Manyak senang. Short now until Aug. That ll be my position”

- How are u going to roll-over until aug with your rolling skill in kindergarden stuff? A beginner also knows how to roll-over, ok? That is the basic in playing this game!

“Make money in the market? Due to FA or TA or our brain power strong? Actually I think its neither loh. I always think I make money not because I am smart. Just because the operator let me make only. I am such a small fish. If they want to kill me, anytime they can.”

- Come on lar, just because you and your gangs there are purely small fish, who the hell do u guys think u are? Big fish wont have time to kill you all lar…. Your small lots contribution does not require big fish’s attention. So, please stop blaming big fish when u are losing, ok? You are losing simply because of your skill. Big fish wont have time to look at you, ok? Not believe ah? Ask me lor, big fish like me prefer to look at how you guys talk kok rather than looking at the few lots you have in hand! Besides, your sifu will be ashamed when u said you are neutral on this. Fyi, he’s looking at you now, ok?

“Ha ha ..u said u r only a TA student, what make u think u r qualified to tell sour seng , he cant beat me with his TA ? ha ha..seng , see ? a TA student said u know nut about TA , if i were u, i will find a hole to hide my bloddy head inside liaooo..ha ha”

– this I seriously like it. sorhai seng is just another who hides in his own small world.

"Dont count the CNY higher margin la. That one temporary only."

- Oh.... your sifu teach you no need to calculate temporary higher margin ah? like that ah? so, let's assume RM 4000 stuck for the rest of the year with once in a while a higher margin, how much you wanna reserve to trade 1 lot? max, you can refer to your sifus, then only answer us. I wanted to know how TA skills / your accounting stuff can help you on this.

Sam, the game is getting exciting. I bet sorhai seng wanted to get involved, but too bad; he's not invited as we rather face maxforce (a reasonable guy at least)then 'paying piano with the sorhai bull'对牛弹琴, right?

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Sam adds another counter to the challenge

Samgoss said...
Wowww, never thought that we hv an "old bird Theng " in FKLI/FCPO ! woww! big player worrr ! ha ha..good good ! seems like lot of hidden tigers reading my blog silently..ha ha2 Theng , u can comments whatever u like in my blog..but pls dont use vulgar words lah..

i am not pretend to be innocent , i did speak one or two vulgar words once in a blue moon , but pls give some respect to our lady readers here ..boleh ? if u feel " pei song " without these vulgar words , y not u put it in short form ? such as " S H " , " M F " .. boleh ?

ha ha..My Dear Theng , d fkli part..i leave it to u liaoooo.. u monitor 4 me ..ok u know lah..i dont trade future n cpo one mah... I know there r lot of loop hole there , we need ppl like u to monitor his call 4 us ^V^

Come back to max .. Max said : At 0.60 in Nov, TA did not suggest to buy. Neither did it suggest to sell. However, it did suggest that accumulation is taking place. Volume spike after a downtrend while prices remain stable - ie the down range is not that big anymore, suggests that selling momentum is decreasing. Accumulation will start to take place. Short term buy is possible, but not a strong buy suggestion from TA. As a matter of fact, till today, it is still in accumulation stage.

*****Wait ! u said till today @ 1.10+- , gpacket is still under accumulation stage ?? OMG ! from 0.63 to 1.10 , up almost 100% liaooo...she still under accumulation stage ? still not confirm uptrend yet ? then tell us when to confirm uptrend ? 1.30 ? if that's d case .. If those who jump in @ 1.30 after seeing confirmed buy signal, obviously they will take a higher risk ! what if d manipulators throw all to u guys @ 1.30 ? like that mati lohh !! no wonder seng get his fingers burnt so badly ! ha ha See guys ? this is TA ! u need to wait 4 uptrend signal..by then it has already rose more than 80% liaooo ! Max..u see d weakness of TA here ?

My reply - The Challenge

Haha lone TA fella here sure kena tembak... but thanks Sam for the defence. Much appreciated your gentleman style. I too free nothing to do this weekend, so post a lot hehe but also your comments quite interesting, else I also wont reply :)


Dear Theng,
Thank you for highlighting where I came from. Not too sure what bizfun ppl did to you or what they say make you not happy. Hopefully it was not me. Haha. Anyway, I owe the bizfun forum because I learnt a lot there. Maybe you didnt learn anything there but as I did, of course it is only natural I feel gratitude right? Its like you feel gratitude towards Sam here. Same thing loh.


Dear Herbert,
I ve been silently reading this blog for some time as mentioned earlier. Sam post his buy and sell calls. But I have not read a more detailed analysis as like those in newspaper or magazines. Maybe I am wrong, but I think Sam does not do so much homework like the fund managers, investment analysts etc and his results are superior than those fund managers/investment analysts right? So perhaps homework need to do, but not that much as those by the analysts?

As for the cycle, Sam corrected my wording used - I should have said Market rise and fall; instead of originally Stock rise and fall. But the whole premise I was trying to say is that it is based on the economic theory of rise and fall due to supply and demand. And TA is centered around this idea. Yes, some good stocks can have strong fundamentals that is why demand is high then price go up. But for some shit stocks also price can go up one woh... if not goreng, I dont know what that is.

Which blog show TA more superior? Actually, so far, I have yet to see any blog which are superior... no offense... I started off in the net visiting many many forums. Then visit many many blogs. Often I stay for a few days to a few months. Most initially look very good. Then found out its not so good. This blog I havent really track yet. Will track loh. Then see if really this blog is good. No offense ar, Sam. Just I belum tahu lagi.

No offense taken on my part. No worries. Van Tharp once said, Everyone of us will have a version of the truth of which may or may not be the truth. Or something to the effect la. Maybe you re right, maybe not. I dont know. Time will tell.


Dear Theng once more,
Correct me if I am wrong, but Moo guy is a strong advocate of FA no?
I remember arguing once kaukau with him. Because I borrowed Buffett's idea of "Selling when the reason you buy is no longer there" into TA. - he not happy. Then he say because I used foul language. All I said was that I have bastardized Buffett's idea and put it into TA. Yeahla... bastard is foul word la. But in that context, it merely mean I change it loh. But he cannot accept.

What to do.Btw, I m better at FKLI/FCPO than stocks... so well if you think I dont know FKLI/FCPO... aiyah... apa macam mau bikin... no need to challenge me in stocks also. Because my stock picking skills lousy mah. Right in the beginning already say loh.


Dear Sam,
OKla... Seng knows nuts about TA la. Happy? He started his blog that time was pure FA. I was the one introducing and convincing him TA can pakai. Then he started looking at TA and to learn TA. Until now how long only? In time la, he ll be better in TA. Is like, how long you took to master FA? Dont tell me born with it one ar... hahahaha
Anyway, yeahla, I pusing pusing then say the same thing. This one call polite mah :P

Yes, shit stock if delisted then relist is unlikely to recoup losses if one bought earlier. But well, my point is just that they might come back - thus the cycle. Anyway, as said above and earlier, I ll mention Market Rise and Fall from now onwards, instead of Stock. Actually I didnt say stock rise because of TA. I merely mention I didnt bother with the why loh.

How to define accumulation and distribution? Well... earlier I did mention that in accumulation, price doesnt move much; got some volume. And accumulation happen AFTER downtrend.
Distribution happen AFTER Uptrend. Price moves in range, volatility quite high. Volume remain high. But the price is in range only. Dont go make new major highs etc liaw...

Aiyah... if I know when... then maybe I no need pakai condom leh? Then I use the withdrawal style loh... :P Yes la... risk is higher. But rubber also not 100% mah. And more shiok without rubber. Hahaha.

FKLI. Manyak senang. Short now until Aug. That ll be my position. I m not that active in blogging, so if you want me become like you to post before hand, then susah la. You got followers. I dont have.You enjoy posting then let others make. I dont care loh others make or not. Not my bank account also. OKla, you can say me selfish. I accept one. But if you like, you can assume I take one contract every month. Margin is RM4000 now. Dont count the CNY higher margin la. That one temporary only. One point is RM50. End of every month see the ROI is how much. Maybe negative also can hahahaha but ROI number is big. So thats why if you say you earned 1500% ROI, I wont disbelieve just based on the number 1500 one. I am fine if you base this as my "performance".

Make money in the market? Due to FA or TA or our brain power strong? Actually I think its neither loh. I always think I make money not because I am smart. Just because the operator let me make only. I am such a small fish. If they want to kill me, anytime they can. Even PB Aneas with 400mil fund also mati... so if they dont want to let me make very easy for them to do only.

So now if you want practical, can be either the options below lo:
1) You choose 5 stocks. Then I comment. Then you comment. I comment first because I am outsider unproven fellow. You would not want me to follow your comments right? This blog is owned by you, so home ground advantage, you comment later lo.

2) You track my assumed ROI per month by assuming I short every first day of the month until Aug. Margin - the capital is RM4000 per lot. Then kautim loh. I already analysed and my analysis tell me should short until Aug. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe I am right. Dont know one ar... if right, make money lo. Wrong ma lose money lo. Simple ma.So Sam, apa macam?

Whichever also can. Once again, I thank you for coming to my defence. Appreciate it a lot. If you do come to Klang, let me know. Bakuteh on me. :)

One thing, I d like to stress though... I am not a master of TA. I am a student of TA. If say Sam agrees on the challenge and then I lose, it ll only mean one thing... my knowledge not enough. Then I ll put in more efforts in learning :)And if I win, then it ll only mean I must learn to remain humble. Either case, it ll not mean FA or TA is more superior. Just that it mean we ll have to keep learning.

Happy learning!

Sam's reply - Why vs When

Samgoss said...
Woww max.. what a fast reply , thanks 4 taking my reply seriously ^V^

I like yr answer on seng knows nut about TA . well, no need to go one big round n then come to say, yes he knows nut about TA , yr answer Is as same as mine "y, d length of our fingers r not d same ? 十个手指有长短! ", too bad, seng is d shorter one.

Yr reply , Yes, some shit stock drop then died. Never see them again. Maybe later they will relist. Who knows?
Well, even they can get listed later, it is quite unlikely 4 u to recover yr losses after d restructuring n bail out .

Yr fourth reply , my reply is to tell u that stok rises n falls r due to FA not TA , not like what u claim that it is solely TA !D

fifth one : U says : Well, my statement earlier refers to accumulation process to uptrend. Yours are referring to distribution then downtrend .
My reply is: I am asking u “ how u define it is accumulation or distribution ? it is just like, buy low sell high , how to define low is low, n high is high ? boleh ?

D sixth n eight : u keeps stressing on timing , timing is TA tool, I stressed on :why” , bcos why is FA tool ! only when one knows “why” then only he can make money ! not when ! give u one example, if u know “why” caused women to pregnant, then only u know how to avoid it by using condom , u cant avoid pregnancy by using when ? by calculate “when” her period over to avoid pregnancy is quite unsecured ^V^ bukan ?

D last one :U says : After I went full fledged into TA, I went into FKLI and FCPO. Later went into US Futures - DJI (YM), SP500 (ES) but timezone difficult, health issues a lot. Finally stopped after kena tembak from doctor. Played a bit of forex too.Stock picking is something of which you re good at. Not something I am good at. Yes, can use TA to pick. But then I ll need to screen through so many stocks... and whats the point leh... in the end, its something you re good at not something I am good at.
Sam says “ ok..since u said FKLI is something u r good at..k…perhaps u can show us yr TA talent in FKLI ^V^what is so difficult ? boleh ?Come 2 yr additional comments , U r talking about manipulation , no one can make money if d said stock was manipulated , be it FA or TA , u can hv a best buy signal or best fundamental of it, they can still put u in deep shit whenever they want . But then horr…it is very unlikely to be happened in bluechips stock due to their proven earning records.

Cut it short , If u want ppl to believe that TA is workable , u must show it to us ! like Theng N Herbert said “ so far, we see none of d TA blogger can do that ! none ! I know u will tell me that u hv no obligation to prove it 2 us.. Well..if that’s d case,,then y u claim that u r not d “shorter finger” among d TA learners ? not that ?


Samgoss said...
2 Theng n all , as I said, there is nothing wrong of being a banana man , cos they didn’t choose to be banana , some r due to parent n environmental factors, hence, it is not right to lough at them !

fyi, most of my best friends r banana also , but then they r very humble n nice like maxforcen n TL ^V^ if u wanna to shames them , shames those who think they r one class above d others n also those who look down to their mother tongue n culture like sour seng !

2 me , maxforce is a nice humble gentlemen , I hereby welcome maxforce to drop his comments in my blog whenever he wish to ^V^ max..u hv my assurance, as long as u r giving sense comments, no one can tembak u in my blog ^V^

U said “Sam:Do u know who is Max huh? Max came from http://www.bizfun.cc/forum/index.php . looks at how quiet the said forum and you will know how stubborn these peoples there on defending TA. If I am not mistaken, you have been invited to join them once. Unfortunately, due to their stubbornness and 'closed' minded, you rejected to join in. At the end, there are two experts there getting trouble with these "closed" peoples there. Maxforce I think still consider a reasonable guys. But; others...... what can I said? Look at the quietness of the said forum and it shall explain all. In short, the said place is also the place for people to syiok sendiri. Ask the Malacca fella and he really knows how to enjoy himself there.

“Yes, I still remember that , thanks 4 yr alert ^V^ fyi, I only visited bizfun once when I was asked to join them last year, since then.. ha ha..u know lah ^V^like Theng said : 人在做﹐天在看 ...... ^V^2 ET , yr "Can u tell us is Lin Chi Ling waiting for u? bcos u r 有才华+长得帅+挣钱.. ha ha "I am definitely not ! may be u r referring to cyt i guess ha ha..right cyt ? ha ha

Other bloggers come to the fray

Of course the below Theng is not my sifu Theng commenting.
Net is like that... the other day, got one forummer asked if I am the one commenting in Bursa Chat box. I am not the one in Bursa Chat Box. I dont chat there. But anyone can pretend to be anyone on the net.

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Theng said...
Sam:Do u know who is Max huh? Max came from http://www.bizfun.cc/forum/index.php . looks at how quiet the said forum and you will know how stubborn these peoples there on defending TA. If I am not mistaken, you have been invited to join them once. Unfortunately, due to their stubbornness and 'closed' minded, you rejected to join in. At the end, there are two experts there getting trouble with these "closed" peoples there.

Maxforce I think still consider a reasonable guys. But; others...... what can I said? Look at the quietness of the said forum and it shall explain all. In short, the said place is also the place for people to syiok sendiri. Ask the Malacca fella and he really knows how to enjoy himself there.

So; my final advice to you. Don't waste your time arguing with those who do not believe you are a pure FA. End of the day, it does not matter also. All of us here trust you. Look at how many response you have since the sorhai seng's case.

At the same time, please have a peep on seng's comments and feedbacks. If not bacause of moo, I think he got nothing out of it. It's like that. Losers really like to syiok sendiri.Keep up your goodwork, Sam. 人

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herbert said...
Dear Maxforce,
I have been following Uncle Sam's blog throughout many years but not a decades.. In reality, i'm still strongly agreed on FA approach practicing by Uncle Sam all the while. Instead of TA method (canddle stick, lead you to halland)..

In fact, if you carefully examine the business news in newspaper whether chinese or english.. Almost more than 50% of writer emphasis on EARNING DATA, BIZ PROSPECT comes to derive so call "PE RATIO"...

About your statement, everything has it's circle.. Fall and rise.. rise and fall.. I'm totally disagree on your concept in stock market..Does it mean all Fund Manager are playing game??? Just goreng goreng in stock market?? The answer is no...In fact, "brain play" come into most important parts to earn money.. nothing is free in this world!!!Definately, they are doing their homework based on HISTORICAL DATA, FORECAST, BUDGET and BIZ ENVIRONMENT (MICRO OR MACRO Economic) to decide which are FUNDAMENTAL STOCK (gems) to invest..

So MAXforce, since you said TA are more powerful than FA??? Pls show me which blog has proven records with TA picks??? Pls do email me.. i felt very curious on this... Haha.. Or you maybe show me your forehand call on the counter that based on your TA principle?? HahaUncle Sam are using FA to earn money not TA.. If he is using TA?? Oh, i'm so sorry then.. wasting my time to type message in Uncle Sam blog..Haha..

TA is trying to deceive people.. There is no fundamental data to support the explaination.. Fall and rise.. rise and fall??? If yes, i think all of us is playing the childish game in stock market..

Anyway, appreciated your reading my message.. No intentional offend on you.. Just want to tell you what is the fact!!! Fact is fact.. Nothing can change the fact.. unless the person trying to come out certain unreal statement to deceive himself.. well, since Seng Ko is happy with that.. just go ahead.. We can not force the cow (Ah Seng Cow) to drink water.. Hahaha...Just joking.. Have a nice weekend ahead..

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Theng said...
The other thing I left out; for seng / moo / whoever thinks they are that great in TA skill, please keep on hiding at your own place and not to disturb the FA peoples here.

You guys think Sam is a real good writer? That is the reason Sam's blog always flooded with followers? Come on lar, banana guys / accountant like you all have better writing skills. But, why your readers 小貓兩三只?

For those who loves hiding in the 'closed' world, please ask somebody else to translate this if you dont know chinese. What a shame though! Sam have lots of readers and followers due to the facts that he have real skills in FA and everybody here believe how good is FA!So, if you do not agreed with FA; please hide yourself in your so called "TA" home. Your TA skills at your home was superb. But, that is only the case at your 'closed' home!

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Theng said...

(EDIT: This part in inverted commas are comments made by me in Seng's blog and also in Bizfun which was quoted by Theng)
"Alternatively if you re still not in peace, one of the only way to beat his returns, is via FKLI/FCPO.
And I can personally assure you that it is possible to have a return of 1500% pa over 16 yrs."
"Rollover is just basically long one month, short another month. You have actually closed the position and then make new one. Thats all. Normally used by instituitions who go for longer term or hedging purposes. For us little fellas, realised or unrealised there is no difference. Unrealised if not enough margin, kena margin call. Sama with realised what."

Ha, sure or not you know the game of FKLI/FCPO??????

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hsunl said...
Hi, Sifus...
Let everyone makes it simple here. If everyone allows me to do so :). Undoubtedly, to let ur bank account loaded with full bullets you need to use SOME weapons as your tools to Hunt this. Through what way is NOT important. Some people can use a machine guns to kill a person, some only used a small knife will do. It depends who do you want to KILL and IN WHAT Circumstances and your abilities. In the end the results in your bank account is the only measurable values.

Just make it simple.... Share goes up due to SOME Body wants it to go up. Share goes down also due to SOME Body wants it to go down. Some Body here can be a small group or a big group or a STRONG person. TA or FA is just the tools to JUDGE or evaluate the stock market in bla..bla... I do believe in year 1993 there were plenty of people making money in the stock market. Right? :). ha..ha.. Simply Because of WHAT? Good Economy? Low PE? High PE? High Volume?

It doesn't matter... Just treat the whole situation Normal DISTRIBUTION level shifted up due to Some BIG Gang wanted the market situation to BE in THAT way. Fighting with the WAVE or with Some body is NOT advisable. Just follow the WAVE and some simple common sense WILL make you HAPPY in the market. Bad Company with SOME body stand behind can make money too~. Good Company with a group of GOOD person stand behind can make money too~.Just treat the share market up or down simply because of SOME body wants it to....

Sound blur and NONSENSE. Nevermind then, just see the result of your bank account... Finally, We all must respect to the PERSON who earn their living from share market trading. Right??

Oops...how about the world economy now? Worst? FA or TA explains that? Make it simple Loh... SOME Body wants it to appear in 2008... doesn't matter purposely or NOT. Just keep it simple. Cheers :).

Just don't spent too much of time on TA or FA anymore. Just tell us WHAT counter is in comfortable level to get along with the WAVE and grab some FOOD from their mouth.

Thanks sifus ~

My reply - Market Mechanism

Thank you for the reply. Let me clarify some of the comments

Your comments:1) First, u said TA is common sense ,k.. but then horr..y seng still made so many mistake ? such as buying gpacket @ 4.50, GS @ 85 , Oskv1 @ 2.50 n Citi @ 8.50? r u saying seng knows nut about TA ? or he doesnt hv any sense ?

My reply:I have no idea why Seng did what he did. It is not up to me to comment. Lets just say this - got one teacher. The teacher teach one class 40 ppl. All teach using same method. Will everyone understand the same? Can you say that the teacher's method work or does not work based on one or two people?And in that class is 40 ppl. The teacher in his lifetime will teach much more than 40 ppl. Sometimes, there will be more ppl who can understand, sometimes less ppl.


2) Second , u said "Many people claim to use TA, but they do not understand TA ", is this statement refer to seng ?

My reply:It is a general statement. It does not refer to anyone specific.


3) Third: U said "Stock rises, then falls then rises then falls. The more detailed process goes as simple as this - "..perhaps u should tell me why shit stock like megan, union paper ,promet all falled until u dont see them in KLSE anymore ? where got falls then rises ? bcos they were in huge debt until they cannot repay d debt , that's y they gone with d wind ! is this not related to FA meh ?

My reply:Yes, some shit stock drop then died. Never see them again. Maybe later they will relist. Who knows? The cycle longer. Or, lets use the reincarnation analogy - some live then die, then live but as animal then die. Some will live then die but then ascend to heaven. There are some exceptions. But then the general idea is that there is a cycle where majority of us will live then die then live then die loh.And, some shit stock later restructure and change name continue in KLSE. Example - Renong?


4)fourth : yr "Stock rises to target of the operators. Now operators started to sell. Public absorbing the volume sold. Price does not move much anymore. Volume remains high. Distribution is at place."Let me tell u y distribution took place here , when stock rises to its fair value , value investors hv made enough , y should they hold ? hence they start selling ! isn't it a FA factor ?

My reply:To me it does not matter why it rises and falls. What matters is knowing when it will rise and when it will fall.


5)Fifth: u said " 1) Stock is accumulated. Price does not move much. Volume begin to pick up. Accumulation Stage2) Stock already accumulated sufficiently. Supply dried out. Demand came. Stock is pushed up. UPtrend begins "Let me show u one good example, KNM @ 1.02 ,she came down from 1.70 , it was hanging around this level with huge volume 4 quite some time , is it accumulated ? look at KNM today , how much she is ?Max..d above knm is a good example , price came down, she does not move with huge volume does'nt mean it is accumulation, how do u define it is accumulation or distribution ? TA cannot tell ? common sense also cannot tell ? bukan ?

My reply:Well, my statement earlier refers to accumulation process to uptrend. Yours are referring to distribution then downtrend. Apamacam la?For me, KNM distribution happened in Jan-Jun 2008. Later downtrend begun. Its range in 1.02 level not too long. Not sufficient to be called accumulation. Normally sideway action in accumulation takes months. Huge volume downward price action, is not accumulation. Earlier I mentioned accumulation is Price sideway action, higher volume (not huge volume)


6)sixth : Look at sapcrest warrant , down from sky, u said, stock falls then rise , well..this one is definitely cannot rise due to out of money n time frame factors , are these not A FA factor also ? y ytlpowerwb is different ? cos she is in money + long time frame , mother's future earning is very promising , r these not FA factor ?

My reply:Well, same reply, to me it does not matter why. Because "why" doesnt help me make money. But "when" can help me make money.


7)I dont agree with yr stock falls then rises, falls then rises ..not all stocks can falls then rises ! only mkt can falls then rises !
My reply:OK. Not all stocks. Thanks for the correction. Market falls then rises.


8)FYI, yr falls then rises cycle is due to FA factor,economy getting bad , earning decline , fair value drop, hence stock falls , after sometime, economy getting better , earning improved , fair value increase , stock rises ! this is d fact ! all these happened bcos of FA not TA !

My reply: Can see our concepts is different because you re finding out why. I only interested in knowing when.


9)Lastly, since u said TA is a common sense stuff , well.. y not u pick up a few counters n show us how it works ? so far what we seen from seng r all holland calls !How about that ? will u ?

My reply: After I went full fledged into TA, I went into FKLI and FCPO. Later went into US Futures - DJI (YM), SP500 (ES) but timezone difficult, health issues a lot. Finally stopped after kena tembak from doctor. Played a bit of forex too.Stock picking is something of which you re good at. Not something I am good at. Yes, can use TA to pick. But then I ll need to screen through so many stocks... and whats the point leh... in the end, its something you re good at not something I am good at.
But, maybe what you thinking is for me to prove my theory. OK. If that is so, why not you name me some counters. Lets limit to five counters. Good counters and bad counters mixed or just make it random.Then we have a timeframe target. Up to you how long. Then I ll comment. You ll comment on the same stock also. Timeframe sampai... then we see jadi tak jadi... can?


10)Max ..sincere advise , talk is easy than do , show u one good example..all of us know what is buy low sell high , buy at low then sell at high, wait for it to come down then buy again n sell at high ! so simple common sense isn't it ? ha ha..is that so simple ? reall so simple ?

My reply: Yes, simple things very hard to do. Ppl say buy low sell high but always end up buy high sell low.My additional comments:I used to be very concerned as to why a stock rise or fall. But no more. Why? Because some shit stock can also goreng until high high. Over valued liaw but still go up. Renong, Hwa Tai, Promet, Kuchai even. The pre 97 prices all is overvalued but still price go up. Of course then they came tumbling down. But to say that once price goes up and down because of FA, I disagree. Initially price havent reach FA target, maybe we can say its because its undervalued. But if price reach FA target then keep going up how? FA tak jadi? The recent one - just take Iris. How much the value in FA? Shoot to 1.40, PE that time how many thousand times. So why go up? More ppl buy loh. Less ppl sell. So why ppl buy? Well.. kena goreng loh...Of course later goreng too long, hangus loh...

Anyway... that one all cakap kosong... thanks Sam for the reply even its 3 am... much appreciated.

For practical can la... if you choose lima biji counter for both of us to comment, then set a time limit. I will comment to the best of my ability loh. Jadi tak jadi tarak tau lagi. But then thats the fun part mah. Tengok whose comment right when time limit up. But that one is if you re free la. Apamacam?

Anyway... now I go goreng bihun... goreng goreng...

Sam's reply

K..back..

Good Max , u know d key factor to success is brain play not language play ^V^ Sad to say there r ppl like seng still dont understand this ^_^

Come back to yr TA explaination .Allow me to ask u few questions :

-First, u said TA is common sense ,k.. but then horr..y seng still made so many mistake ? such as buying gpacket @ 4.50, GS @ 85 , Oskv1 @ 2.50 n Citi @ 8.50? r u saying seng knows nut about TA ? or he doesnt hv any sense ?

Second , u said "Many people claim to use TA, but they do not understand TA ", is this statement refer to seng ?

Third: U said "Stock rises, then falls then rises then falls. The more detailed process goes as simple as this - "..perhaps u should tell me why shit stock like megan, union paper ,promet all falled until u dont see them in KLSE anymore ? where got falls then rises ? bcos they were in huge debt until they cannot repay d debt , that's y they gone with d wind ! is this not related to FA meh ?

fourth : yr "Stock rises to target of the operators. Now operators started to sell. Public absorbing the volume sold. Price does not move much anymore. Volume remains high. Distribution is at place."Let me tell u y distribution took place here , when stock rises to its fair value , value investors hv made enough , y should they hold ? hence they start selling ! isn't it a FA factor ?

Fifth: u said " 1) Stock is accumulated. Price does not move much. Volume begin to pick up. Accumulation Stage2) Stock already accumulated sufficiently. Supply dried out. Demand came. Stock is pushed up. UPtrend begins "Let me show u one good example, KNM @ 1.02 ,she came down from 1.70 , it was hanging around this level with huge volume 4 quite some time , is it accumulated ? look at KNM today , how much she is ?Max..d above knm is a good example , price came down, she does not move with huge volume does'nt mean it is accumulation, how do u define it is accumulation or distribution ? TA cannot tell ? common sense also cannot tell ? bukan ?

sixth : Look at sapcrest warrant , down from sky, u said, stock falls then rise , well..this one is definitely cannot rise due to out of money n time frame factors , are these not A FA factor also ? y ytlpowerwb is different ? cos she is in money + long time frame , mother's future earning is very promising , r these not FA factor ? I dont agree with yr stock falls then rises, falls then rises ..not all stocks can falls then rises ! only mkt can falls then rises !FYI, yr falls then rises cycle is due to FA factor,economy getting bad , earning decline , fair value drop, hence stock falls , after sometime, economy getting better , earning improved , fair value increase , stock rises ! this is d fact ! all these happened bcos of FA not TA !

Lastly, since u said TA is a common sense stuff , well.. y not u pick up a few counters n show us how it works ? so far what we seen from seng r all holland calls ! How about that ? will u ? Max ..sincere advise , talk is easy than do , show u one good example..all of us know what is buy low sell high , buy at low then sell at high, wait for it to come down then buy again n sell at high ! so simple common sense isn't it ? ha ha..is that so simple ? reall so simple ?

As i said , u know it doesnt mean u understand it , u understand it , doesnt mean u know how to apply it ! talk is free ^V^Like d cantonese saying :講就天下無敵 !做就有心無力 !D saying sound familiar right ? Seng blog ?

ha ha..Max, 2 me , Although I dont agree with what u said but still I hv to thanks u 4 yr long explaination.Lastly , u can choose to ignore my questions if u think I am talking nonsense.

Thanks Max ^V^Woww almost 3 am oledi..kow kow g time.. Gd nite max n all.

A reply to Sam of Samgang Blog

A reply to Sam's comments:
http://samgang.blogspot.com/2009/01/vdear-maxforce-thanks-4-yr-compliment.html

Dear Sam,

Thank you for posting my comments and your followup writeups on my comments on Seng's blog.FYI, I scored distinction in 1119 English but not really proud of it. No big deal. English is not everything. Good in English does not mean anything at all. As a matter of fact, my sifu is not good in English but I hold him in the highest regard. There are times when ppl insult his level of English and I ll come very hard on them, VERY HARD...

I am also a big fan of Sun Tzu. Everytime I am free, I ll read it, over and over again... it never fail to teach me new things. Sad to say, that also mean that I have not fully understand the scripture yet. Hopefully someday I will. Hopefully.

I am actually not supposed to blog. I m actually in seclusion. My sifu will be upset seeing me posting here but anyway, hopefully he ll understand that I only mean to share not to brag or anything. I ll always remember his teachings... to be humble or be humbled by the market. Both of us will not gain anything from this discussion in monetary terms, at least not directly. Whether at the end of the day, you are actually using TA or not, it does not really matter also. You ll still continue your methods that work and discard any that does not. Same here as me. At the end of the day, we ll both look at our own bank balance and be happy or upset about it. Does not matter to anyone else.

I read your blog silently for some time. I ve never commented previously because you are such anti-TA person. Same as your fans. For whatever reasons it may be that you hate TA so much, it does not really matter. If you give me a chance to talk about TA as like right now, perhaps your perception of TA will change.

Back in 2006 or 2007, I cannot recall, I started a blog called Fusion Trader. One week later, Seng started his blog naming himself Fusion Investor. Later we visited each other's blog and intense discussion ensued. He was a pure FA guy back then. I was a convert - I started off with FA then fully TA.

FYI, I am an accountant by profession, I know the numbers. At the same time, I m not a book keeper, I look at businesses at the larger picture, unlike many accountants who are just interested in the numbers. Hence, FA is not a strange thing to me. However, later I switched to TA due to its superior result.


Enough for the introductions... now to the actual discussion at hand.
1) Your reasoning of the price usage in FA terms is acceptable to me. Very true. A pure FA guy cannot disregard price - there is a need to compare the intrinsic value vs the share price to come to a conclusion as to whether it is overpriced or not.

2) For volume indeed it is common sense. But then again, TA is supposed to be common sense. TA is not about the fancy indicators, not about fancy patterns, or fancy waves. At the end of the day, TA should be as simple as this - Price, Volume and Time. I ll explain more on this Price Volume and Time shortly.

3) GreenPacket recommendation at 4.50 - at that time, I still remember when I read that, I was shaking my head... remember I am a pure TA guy already. Thus if you say TA suggested a buy, I disagree. As a matter of fact, I remember posting that GPacket was a SELL at Boon's chatbox. (Among others which I posted a SELL at Boon's was Tenaga)

4) May 19 was when the recommendation was made. I say, have the chart. Just price and volume would suffice. No need fancy indicators. No need moving averages even. Just the basic price and volume. What do you see?

My observations:
a)Price went up previously.
b)Notable lows - 5.22, 5.33 and then 4.90.
c)Rebounded from the 4.90 low but the price movements and the volume spike suggested that downtrend is imminent or at least that the distribution is taking place.
d)Common sense and also TA suggested that when Downtrend imminent, its a SELL. When distribution, get ready to SELL. Hence why I disagree that TA suggest to buy.

5)At 0.60 in Nov, TA did not suggest to buy. Neither did it suggest to sell. However, it did suggest that accumulation is taking place. Volume spike after a downtrend while prices remain stable - ie the down range is not that big anymore, suggests that selling momentum is decreasing. Accumulation will start to take place. Short term buy is possible, but not a strong buy suggestion from TA. As a matter of fact, till today, it is still in accumulation stage.

6)Indeed your understanding of volume significance is good. Volume NEVER say its going up or going down. It should NEVER be looked at alone. However with Price, it may suggest something.

7)Many people claim to use TA, but they do not understand TA. TA is one of the most misunderstood tool. TA is NOT about indicators. Indicators are in the end a manipulation of formulas - circling around Price, Volume and Time. Eg. Moving Averages are basically derived from Price and Time. RSI - is derived from Price and Time too. Dont believe me? Go to investopedia and check it out. I shall not go into other indicators. They re all the same. Hence, if all indicators came from Price, VOlume and TIme, WHY USE THEM??? They may make it easier to read, but they ll HIDE some things... it ll be like reading a summary of Sun Tzu instead of reading it in its original text!!!

8)For me, a 100% TA guy, I say, TA is 100% common sense. It is and should be the simplest form as possible - Price Volume and Time. It should not be complicated. It should follow the concept of KISS - Keep It Simple, Stupid. So why now TA become so complicated? Because of vanity and pride. Initially people appreciate the simplicity of the TA methods. Then people began to feel bored. They want to complicate things. They feel that they re more superior because they use more complicated tool.

But they forgot the law of nature - Ren Fa Ti, Ti Fa Tian, Tian Fa Tao, Tao Fa Zi Ran. Everything goes back to Nature. Its a cycle. We live then we die, then we live then we die. Everything goes back to Nature. Stock rises, then falls then rises then falls. The more detailed process goes as simple as this -
1) Stock is accumulated. Price does not move much. Volume begin to pick up. Accumulation Stage
2) Stock already accumulated sufficiently. Supply dried out. Demand came. Stock is pushed up. UPtrend begins.
3) Stock rises to target of the operators. Now operators started to sell. Public absorbing the volume sold. Price does not move much anymore. Volume remains high. Distribution is at place.
4) Operator keeps selling. Public cannot absorb anymore. Demand dried up. Supply overflowed. Price goes down. Downtrend begins.
5) Later it will hit bottom and then goes through the accumulation process once again. A wonderful cycle isnt it? Doesnt it reflect how our lives are? Doesnt it reflect how Nature works?

Is it TA? I say it is. Is it FA? No, I dont look at PE. I dont look at accounts. I dont assess the business at all. Just looking at this cycle.

So I still say, Sam, your usage of price, I accept is NOT TA. But your usage of Volume is TA. And YES... its common sense. But TA is SUPPOSED TO BE COMMON SENSE!!! Its only humans due to their pride and vanity make it complicated. And I still say I am a pure TA guy, though I dont use the fancy indicators and stuff.

How, Mr Sam, accept?

Max is now on Celcom Broadband